Up up and away
Ok, up up, down, up, down down down, up up and away. I’ve been away furiously recruiting staff and working on QIS2 while completing a house move, so not much blogging recently. Should pick up again...
View ArticleGold ain’t happening yet
Paulson and Soros still think Gold is a buy, adding to their stakes as the price declines. It’s also not very brave of me to blog about this now as gold has declined when for much of the financial...
View ArticleUnderstanding just how bad things can get
CEOs are a pretty optimistic bunch. And I think maybe that’s right. It might be the only way to maintain sanity in the job. I’ve lost count of the number of conversations I’ve had with CEOs and CFOs...
View ArticleSAM Risk-free Rate Workshop
The Technical Provisions Task Group and KPMG ran a workshop for industry participation on risk-free rates recently. The idea was to see whether we could improve the extent and quality of industry...
View ArticleDifferent types of predictions
As part of the run-up to my overview of my own predictions for 2012, I thought i should highlight why I bother at all. Most predictions, most of the time, will be wrong. Crystal balls aside, it is...
View ArticleCredit Suisse annual update on market performance
Credit Suisse has for several years now put out an annual Credit Suisse Global Investment Returns Yearbook 2013 is out now. It’s worth reading in its entirety for the insights. I don’t agree with...
View ArticleLotteries for good
Interesting post over at Moneybox on using lotteries for selling concert tickets. Major point is using lotteries explicitly and more fairly rather than implicitly and inefficiently.
View ArticleThe importance of verification
It’s amazing to test this yourself. Hold down the button of a garage door opener and try to use your vehicle lock / unlock button. It doesn’t work. Simple as that. The signal from the garden variety...
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The virtual irrelevancy of population size to required sample size
Statistics and sampling are fundamental to almost all of our understanding of the world. The world is too big to measure directly. Measuring representative samples is a way to understand the entire...
View ArticleSA85-90 “combined” and more actuarial sloppiness
I know of far too many actuaries who think that the “average” SA85/90 table is an appropriate base for their insured lives mortality assumption. It’s not. It’s also a good example of “actuarial...
View ArticleDifferent types of predictions
As part of the run-up to my overview of my own predictions for 2012, I thought i should highlight why I bother at all. Most predictions, most of the time, will be wrong. Crystal balls aside, it is...
View ArticleCredit Suisse annual update on market performance
Credit Suisse has for several years now put out an annual Credit Suisse Global Investment Returns Yearbook 2013 is out now. It’s worth reading in its entirety for the insights. I don’t agree with...
View ArticleLotteries for good
Interesting post over at Moneybox on using lotteries for selling concert tickets. Major point is using lotteries explicitly and more fairly rather than implicitly and inefficiently.
View ArticleThe importance of verification
It’s amazing to test this yourself. Hold down the button of a garage door opener and try to use your vehicle lock / unlock button. It doesn’t work. Simple as that. The signal from the garden variety...
View ArticleClik here to view.
The virtual irrelevancy of population size to required sample size
Statistics and sampling are fundamental to almost all of our understanding of the world. The world is too big to measure directly. Measuring representative samples is a way to understand the entire...
View ArticleSA85-90 “combined” and more actuarial sloppiness
I know of far too many actuaries who think that the “average” SA85/90 table is an appropriate base for their insured lives mortality assumption. It’s not. It’s also a good example of “actuarial...
View ArticleClik here to view.
Behavioural economics and XKCD
This is premature for a book review as I’m only on page 3 or something. The book:Insurance and Behavioral Economics: Improving Decisions in the Most Misunderstood Industry has been recommended to me a...
View ArticleSystemic risk primary poll
Note: There is a poll embedded within this post, please visit the site to participate in this post's poll.
View ArticleCredit Life regulations and reactions (2)
In part 1 I discussed the implications of basing premiums on initial balance or declining balance for profitability and the threat of substitute policies. In this post I want to discuss substitute...
View ArticleDownwards counterfactual analysis
Stress and scenario testing are important risk assessment tools. They also provide useful ways to prepare in advance for adverse scenarios so that management doesn’t have to create everything from...
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